Variable temperature thresholds of melt pond formation on Antarctic ice shelves

Abstract It has been argued that the −5 °C annual mean 2 m air temperature isotherm defines a limit of ice shelf viability on Antarctic Peninsula as melt ponding increases at higher temperatures. is, however, presently unknown whether this threshold can also be applied to other shelves. Here we use two present-day and three future high-resolution climate simulations predict warming thresholds for pond formation basis melt-over-accumulation ratio. The associated match well with observed volumes are found spatially highly variable controlled by snow accumulation. For relatively wet shelves, was confirmed; but cold dry shelves such Amery, Ross Filchner-Ronne more vulnerable than previously thought, temperatures below −15 °C. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models towards end century these reached many even under moderate scenarios.